When the Soviet Union fell, there were many factors that went into it. The democratic revolutions had started in 1989, but they had been going on underground long before that. Czechoslovakia had always been a problem for the USSR along with Yugoslavia. The Balkans have always been a troubled place just like the rest of Europe.
But the biggest problem was the aging Soviet guard. Gorbachev realized that the leadership was aging and that young people were not seeing things the same as the older generation. They wanted change. They wanted to be like the West.
I see the same thing eventually happening in Cuba. Fidel Castro's brother, Raul, recently implemented a major reform in Cuba, allowing people to buy and sell property for the first time since 1959.
Sure a reform like this could mean nothing, but I see one of two outcomes for Cuba in the next fifteen years.
1. When the old order dies out, Cubans will take back their country and have a democratic revolution that will open the country. My ninth grade history teacher predicted that Cuba would eventually become a democratic nation and would open itself to tourism from the United States.
or...
2. Cuba becomes the mirror of China. I like to call the Chinese "pseudo-Communists." While they still call themselves Communists, Marx and Lenin would never recognize Chinese Communism as it is today. They are more concerned with crushing the United States through economics than anything else. I can see Cuba taking this path.
How will Cuba play out? I can't wait to see.
It will be interesting to see if they become a " successful" democratic nation. I tend to agree with you on this one.
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